AGAINST ALL ODDS...

The "norm" would be an all out grab your balls and hit the court massive short covering rally prior to option's expiration Friday.

So I wouldn't be surprised if the markets reverse tomorrow Against All Odds*.

*John Henry winner of the inaugural Arlington million Stakes.........

There's a bronze statue called "Against All Odds" created by Edwin Bugucki that stands on a balcony overlooking the paddock at Arlington Park. It commemorates one of John Henry's most thrilling, as well as his most controversial, finishes. It was the inaugural Arlington Million and two horses, John and an Irish 5 year-old named The Bart, came sweeping home almost as one horse. Virtually everyone watching, including the racing judges, was sure The Bart had beaten a charging John Henry who was closing relentlessly, sure that the finish line would come too soon for John to catch up. Everyone was wrong. John won, not by a nose, but a lip.


(A little background)
John Henry was sold as a yearling for $1,100 at the Keeneland January Mixed sale to Jean Calloway who is credited with giving John Henry his name. Besides being back at the knee (a flaw in conformation that generally makes a long racing career unlikely), undersized, and plainly bred, John Henry had bashed his head in his stall just before being led to the ring, bloodying his face. Needless to say, he was not an attractive prospect. From there, he was shuffled around through a series trainers, making his mark as a workmanlike racehorse who earned money in minor stakes, allowance races, and mid-level claiming races. One such allowance race took place at Saratoga Race Course on August 8, 1978. The race is of note in that John Henry finished behind Darby Creek Road who won in a track record time of 1:20 2/5 for 7 furlongs. Also of note was the fact that unknown to all attending that day, the race card featured two future Hall of Fame horses. At that point, John Henry was a nobody, but later on the card the great Affirmed scored a heart stopping victory in the Jim Dandy Stakes over the speedy Sensitive Prince.




A rally may or may not happen this week but I think I will keep my buy list nearby..........


Good luck trading...

00K


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FORECLOSURE WATCH...

IYR, potential high tight bearish flag forming.
An easy way to play the real estate sector (long/short)
is by using the IYR etf...


Foreclosures May Hit 1.5 Million in U.S. Housing Bust-- March 12 (Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ahwzaBwuNaII&refer=us


Charts and comments NEVER INTENDED AS ADVICE...

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DIMINISHING VOLUME...

Diminishing volume to start this triple witching options expiration week.
Odds are increasing for a sell off...


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HOT SPOT CHARTING...

(Click charts to enlarge)

ALTR, back in the rising wedge...


SCVL, megaphone pattern...


SMTL, Will it break below the trend line.........


KDN, potential bear flag...

Charts and comments are NEVER INTENDED AS ADVICE...


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ALL EYE'S ON CHINA...

Shanghai Stock Exchange Index,
Potential reversal Doji.
With the holiday trading gap it kinda resembles a volcano...


Hong Kong Hang Seng,
Potential bear flag...


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Quadruple Expiration Day March 16th ...

Seems to be only a lackluster short covering rally so far.
There is a Quadruple Expiration Day Friday March 16, 2007.
This could help to keep the markets in an upwards moving direction.
However caution is definitely pertinent!

(Click charts to enlarge)

DJWI, pause and go....


DJ Europe consumer goods index...
Closed slightly above 50ma. If it fails to hold we might want to reconsider the double top scenario...


DJ electronic & electric equipment index...


LIZ, unable to get back above the neckline...
RSI moving into oversold but probable double top with a first target around the 200ma.
Let's give it another chance to overcome the neckline...

Watching stops and overnight long positions.
In a fast moving market stops fail to hold!!!!

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Charts and comments are NEVER INTENDED AS ADVICE...

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HOT SPOT CHARTING...

Let's take a look at a few of Friday's midday meltdown blogged charts.
Most did reasonably well without losing much ground considering the nature of the markets Friday and Monday...



DEIX, stayed tight and had a minor 2.11% breakout today.
Lightly traded stock...


COGT, also remained stable and Friday's suggested possible flag formation is now a pennant...


GRAN, fell below its multi-month channel yesterday and shook out
the loose hands before recovering most of its decline.
Back in the channel today...


SYKE, Continued to close within it's pennant formation.
Broke out today with a 23.20% pop on very heavy volume...


Could we see some choppy going tomorrow in the markets?


Charts and comments are NEVER INTENDED AS ADVICE...


Good luck trading...

00K


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ASIA MARKETS

Asia stocks end higher as bargain-hunting emerges!
After carnage, markets in Japan, Hong Kong, China, South Korea advance...

MarketWatch
Last Update: 5:16 AM ET Mar 6, 2007

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/japan-korea-hong-kong-china/story.aspx?guid=%7BC6870F4B%2D0360%2D4F70%2D8BB1%2DBA5F22E2DF4B%7D



00K

HOT SPOT CHARTING...

(Click charts to enlarge)

SP500...................................................................................

Turn around Tuesday?


Could we see a HUGE short covering rally Tuesday or Wednesday?.....



Hourly QQQQ...



Hourly Semi's...

This is not an environment to fool around in if you don’t have significant funds and discipline...

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In the news...

SEOUL, Korea, March 5, 2007 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Spansion Inc. (SPSN), the world's largest pure-play provider of Flash memory solutions, today announced that it has received the Best Supplier of the Year 2006 Award from Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. Spansion was the only NOR Flash memory supplier selected. Spansion also won the award in 2005 and in 2001 under AMD, and received the Most Valued Partner prize from the Mobile and Communication Division in 2004......

NEW YORK, Mar 05, 2007 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- FORTUNE magazine announced today that General Electric tops its 25th annual list of America's Most Admired Companies, the second consecutive year the Fairfield, Connecticut-based conglomerate has topped the list. General Electric is one of only two companies, along with Johnson & Johnson, who were on FORTUNE's first ever most admired list and appear in the top ten 25 years later. Following GE is Starbucks at No. 2, displacing FedEx (No. 6.), and Toyota Motor at No. 3, bumping Southwest Airlines (No. 5). One common theme among the top three most admired companies is their focus on environmental initiatives. FORTUNE senior writer Anne Fisher writes in her introduction to the list, "In 1982, the year of the first FORTUNE survey of corporate reputations, green was just the color of money. These days 'green' means something more. The three most admired companies this year--General Electric, Starbucks, and Toyota--are building their growth at least partly on strategies and products aimed at helping preserve the planet." The list and related stories appear in the March 19 issue of FORTUNE, on newsstands March 12 and are currently available online....


Stock price data source: Thomson One

Adesa Inc. (KAR), Kelso & Co./GS Capital Partners group

Premium offered: $0.47 or 1.7%
Acquirer: Kelso/GS Capital group
Target: KAR
Offer per share: $27.85 cash
Value of outstanding common equity: $2,503,715,000
Target share price: $27.38
Expected closing: Second quarter 5/15/2007
Annualized gain: 8.8%


Agere Systems Inc. (AGR), LSI Logic Corp. (LSI)

Premium offered: $0.11 or 0.5%
Acquirer: LSI
Target: AGR
Shares offered per share: 2.16 shares
Value of offer per share: $21.43
Value of outstanding common equity: $3,636,195,840
Acquirer share price: $9.92
Target share price: $21.32
Expected closing: Late first quarter 3/31/2007
Annualized gain: N/A


Altiris Inc. (ATRS), Symantec Corp. (SYMC)

Premium offered: $0.45 or 1.4%
Acquirer: SYMC
Target: ATRS
Offer per share: $33 cash
Value of outstanding common equity: $973,500,000
Target share price: $32.55
Acquirer share price: $16.89
Expected closing: Second quarter 5/15/2007
Annualized gain: 7.1%


Bandag Inc. (BDG), Bridgestone Americas Holding Inc.

Premium offered: $0.11 or 0.2%
Acquirer: Bridgestone Americas
Target: BDG
Offer per share: $50.75 cash
Value of outstanding common equity: $989,625,000
Target share price: $50.64
Expected closing: Early second quarter 4/1/2007
Annualized gain: 2.9%


Biomet Inc. (BMET), Blackstone Group consortium

Premium offered: $1.81 or 4.3%
Acquirer: Blackstone Group consortium
Target: BMET
Offer per share: $44 cash
Value of outstanding common equity: $10,775,600,000
Target share price: $42.19
Expected closing: Late October 10/31/2007
Annualized gain: 6.5%


Caremark Rx Inc. (CMX), CVS Corp. (CVS)

Premium offered: -$9.16 or -15.1%
Acquirer: CVS
Target: CMX
Shares offered per share: 1.67 shares
Value of offer per share: $51.69
Value of outstanding common equity: $22,064,967,563
Acquirer share price: $30.95
Target share price: $60.85
Expected closing: First quarter
Annualized gain: N/A
Note: On Dec. 18, Express Scripts Inc. (ESRX) offered to acquire Caremark for $26 billion in cash and stock, or $58.50 a share. On Feb. 13, CVS raised its offer for Caremark by increasing a cash dividend to shareholders to $6 a share from $2.

CBOT Holdings (BOT), Chicago Mercantile Holdings Inc. (CME)

Premium offered: $2.21 or 1.4%
Acquirer: CME
Target: BOT
Shares offered per share: 0.3006 share
Value of offer per share: $163.22
Value of outstanding common equity: $8,617,845,629
Acquirer share price: $542.97
Target share price: $161.01
Expected closing: Mid-year 2007 6/15/2007
Annualized gain: 4.9%


Clear Channel Communications Inc. (CCU), Thomas H. Lee Partners L.P./Bain
Capital Group

Premium offered: $1.53 or 4.2%
Acquirer: Lee/Bain Group
Target: CCU
Offer per share: $37.60 cash
Value of outstanding common equity: $18,566,880,000
Target share price: $36.07
Expected closing: Late 2007 12/31/2007
Annualized gain: N/A
Note: The deal has a total value of about $26.7 billion, including assumption of $8 billion of net debt.

Commonwealth Telephone Enterprises (CTCO), Citizens Communications Co. (CZN)

Premium offered: $0.12 or 0.3%
Acquirer: CZN
Target: CTCO
Offer per share: 0.768 share and $31.31 per share
Value of offer per share: $42.56
Value of outstanding common equity securities: $897,960,296
Acquirer share price: $14.65
Target share price: $42.44
Expected closing: Mid-year 2007 6/15/2007
Annualized gain: 1%

Delta & Pine Land Co. (DLP), Monsanto Co. (MON)

Premium offered: $1.21 or 3%
Acquirer: MON
Target: DLP
Offer per share: $42 cash
Value of outstanding common equity: $1,507,800,000
Target share price: $40.79
Acquirer share price: $50.91
Expected closing: N/A
Annualized gain: N/A


Duquesne Light Holdings (DQE), Macquarie Infrastructure group

Premium offered: -$0.08 or -0.4%
Acquirer: Macquarie group
Target: DQE
Offer per share: $20 cash
Value of outstanding common equity: $1,568,000,000
Target share price: $20.08
Expected closing: First quarter
Annualized gain: N/A
Note: Including debt, the transaction value is about $3.15 billion.

ElkCorp. (ELK), Building Materials Corp of America

Premium offered: $0.17 or 0.4%
Acquirer: Building Materials
Target: ELK
Offer per share: $43.50 cash
Value of outstanding common equity: $896,100,000
Target share price: $43.33
Expected closing: March 29
Annualized gain: N/A


First Republic Bank (FRC), Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER)

Premium offered: $1.40 or 2.6%
Acquirer: MER
Target: FRC
Offer per share: $55 cash & stock
Value of outstanding common equity: $1,699,500,000
Target share price: $53.60
Acquirer share price: $81.29
Expected closing: Third quarter 8/15/2007
Annualized gain: 5.85%


Four Seasons Hotels Inc. (FS), Cascade Investment LLC consortium

Premium offered: $0.93 or 1.15%
Acquirer: Cascade group
Target: FS
Offer per share: $82 cash
Value of outstanding common equity: $3,017,600,000
Target share price: $81.07
Expected closing: Second quarter 5/15/2007
Annualized gain: 5.9%


Giant Industries Inc. (GI), Western Refining Inc. (WNR)

Premium offered: $1.70 or 2.3%
Acquirer: WNR
Target: GI
Offer per share: $77 cash
Value of outstanding common equity: $1,124,200,000
Target share price: $75.30
Acquirer share price: $29.42
Expected closing: First quarter
Annualized gain: N/A


Genesis HealthCare Corp. (GHCI), Formation Capital/JER Partners

Premium offered: $0.60 or 1%
Acquirer: Formation/JER
Target: GHCI
Offer per share: $63 cash
Value of outstanding common equity: $1,241,100,000
Target share price: $62.40
Expected closing: N/A
Annualized gain: N/A


Harrah's Entertainment Inc. (HET), Apollo/Texas Pacific group

Premium offered: $5.83 or 6.9%
Acquirer: Apollo/Texas Pacific group
Target: HET
Offer per share: $90 cash
Value of outstanding common equity: $16,740,000,000
Target share price: $84.17
Expected closing: Late 2007 12/31/2007
Annualized gain: 8.4%


Houston Exploration Co. (THX), Forest Oil Corp. (FST)

Premium offered: $0.54 or 1.1%
Acquirer: FST
Target: THX
Offer per share: 0.84 share and $26.25 per share
Value of offer per share: $52.08
Value of outstanding common equity securities: $1,463,565,996
Acquirer share price: $30.75
Target share price: $51.54
Expected closing: Second quarter 5/15/2007
Annualized gain: 5.4%


Hub International Ltd. (HBG), Apax Partners/Morgan Stanley

Premium offered: $0.96 or 2.5%
Acquirer: Apax, Morgan Stanley
Target: HBG
Offer per share: $40 cash
Value of outstanding common equity: $1,584,000,000
Target share price: $39.04
Expected closing: Late second quarter 6/30/2007
Annualized gain: 7.7%

Hyperion Solutions Corp. (HYSL), Oracle Corp. (ORCL)

Premium offered: $0.47 or 0.9%
Acquirer: ORCL
Target: HYSL
Offer per share: $52 cash
Value of outstanding common equity: $3,068,000,000
Target share price: $51.53
Acquirer share price: $16.80
Expected closing: April 4/15/2007
Annualized gain: 8.1%





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Shanghai...

By Quentin Sommerville BBC News, Shanghai

In crowded trading rooms across China, there's a gold-rush atmosphere.
Even though the volatility of Shanghai's stock market was enough to trigger a global share sell-off last week, it does not seem to have discouraged Chinese investors.
The Orient Securities brokerage in central Shanghai is more crowded than ever.
But cast aside images of Wall Street-style traders. This, like many of China's growing number of brokerages, is a very local affair.
People of all ages are crowded around the terminals, banging away on keypads, one transaction after another. The traders, many of them elderly, shell peanuts, or get on with their knitting, in between trades.
When the market closes for lunch, they play cards. In fact, it's difficult to know where the gambling ends and the trading begins, as the room feels more like a bookmaker's than a share dealing room.
The Shanghai Index increased in value by 130% last year, and that's got everyone interested in taking a bet.
"It's not easy," said amateur investor Qin Miaolong. "Sometimes I lose money.
"People like me, who don't know how to trade, lose more money than they make. If you know the market, it's easy. If you don't know the market, you can easily lose more than you make."
'No limits'
It is very easy to set up a trading account. All that is required is a bank account. At the height of the market, as many as 90,000 new accounts are being opened every day across China.
Shares are cheap, only a few pennies - and with the market increasing by as much as 10% some weeks, the returns are viewed as better than anything else on offer.

"The market has risen so much, so quickly, there is always the risk it could fall again James T Areddy, Wall Street Journal "

In a room just off the public trading floor, the semi-professional investors are busy trading in bigger numbers. To sit in there, they must have at least 1m renminbi ($130,000) to invest.
Chen Lei is one of the big investors. "For ordinary people, there are not many channels for investment in China," she said.
"Everyone can invest in the stock market, no matter how much money you have, no matter how old you are.
"There's no limitation. All can take part, so people think it's proper to invest in the stock market."
Chinese people have an estimated $2 trillion in their bank accounts. But interest rates are low, so many want to put their money elsewhere.
Government measures to cool the property market have made it more difficult to invest, while prices remain high.
Bubble fears
Many of the traders believe the government wants them to invest in the market, said Mrs Chen.
"China has had a 3-to-5 year bear market. Now Chinese leaders hope the stock market will recover. If the stock market recovers well, it will stimulate the consumption in the rest of the economy," she said.
China's leadership has worried publicly that the stock market was becoming a bubble, that investors were behaving "irrationally", in the words of Cheng Siwei, one of the country's top legislators.
It was partly fears of a government intervention to cool the market - perhaps by charging capital gains tax on share profits - that spooked investors last Tuesday, sending the market 8.8% lower.
The market improved a day later, when the state media made clear that there would not be a tax rise.
"The market has risen so much, so quickly, there is always the risk it could fall again," said James T Areddy, China correspondent for the Wall Street Journal.
"There could be another generation of investors that gets burned, and they would be very upset at the regulators."
China's government has been quick to claim credit for the stock market's earlier success, and to encourage investment. But if it falters again, the growing band of private investors will know who to blame.
Story from BBC NEWS:http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/business/6412849.stmPublished: 2007/03/04 17:53:51 GMT© BBC MMVII

http://news.bbc.co.uk/

HANG SENG...

Hong Kong Hang Seng...
18,750 area (?)

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INFLATION WATCH...

Agricultural prices have been rising and are a significant component of the Producer Price Index (PPI) which is a key measure of inflation.
Rising wedge pattern could take months or years to complete...


Livestock prices have also been rising.
The pattern is an ascending triangle which sould be considered a continuation pattern upon an upwards breakout...



00k

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ECONOMIC REPORT SCHEDULE...

Calendar

3/5
ISM Services

3/6
Factory Orders

3/6
Productivity-Rev

3/7
Consumer Credit

3/8
Initial Jobless Claims

3/9
Unemployment Rate

3/9
Trade Balance







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00K

MARGIN

Consider this, if you bought a stock and set a 5% stop loss on it, and you are buying it on margin, instead of losing 5% of your capital, you now could lose 20% of it. Here is a real dollars and cents demonstration of how this can happen. (Commissions are not going to be figured into this demonstration)

Cash Account: You buy 100 shares of XYZ @ $10 = $1000.00 capital. You set a 5% stop at $9.50. The price falls and you get stopped out. 100 shares @ $9.50 = $950.00 of capital remaining.

2X Margin Account: You are going to use that same $1000 to buy XYZ, but with your margin, you can buy twice as much. You buy 200 shares of XYZ @ $10. You put up $1000 of your capital, and your broker matches that with $1000 of margin for the total purchase price of $2000.00 You set the same stop, and it gets hit. So there is $1900 from the sale of the 200 shares, FIRST you have to pay back the $1000 of margin to your broker, that leaves you $900 of your capital remaining. You started with $1000 of your capital, and now only have $900 left, that is a 10% loss of YOUR MONEY!

4X Margin Account: You can now buy 400 shares of XYZ @ 10, you still put up the same $1000 of your capital, and your broker puts up the remaining $3000. Same stop is used. When it is hit, the first thing you have to do out of the $3800 you get from selling 400 shares of XYZ @ $9.50, is to pay back the $3000 to your broker, that leaves you $800 out of the $1000 that you started with. That is a 20% loss of YOUR MONEY!

And another bad aspect to this, is now you only have $800 left, so with 4X margin your buying power is down from $4000 to $3200, so you can not even buy the 400 shares of XYZ back unless it falls to $8. So not only does the 4X take away more of your capital on a "small" loss, but it also drastically reduces your buying power.



00K

Good luck trading...


The email address is provided only as a courtesy to those readers who want to express their comments...

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HOT SPOT CHARTING...

(Click charts to enlarge)

DEIX, Ending wedge potential.
RSI oversold and positive MACD divergence...


SYKE, Potential bullish pennant formation. Positive money flow.
Closed above the 50ma on a day the indexes were in the red...


SPSN, Ground floor opportunity? Back to it's ipo.
Positive MACD divergence and the STO is oversold...


NLST, Is also back to it's ipo.
Positive RSI and MACD divergence...


GRAN, 200ma held and it's trading at the
bottom of it's multi-month channel...


COGT, RSI could be overbought but MACD went positive.
Potential bullish flag developing...

Charts and comments are NEVER INTENDED AS ADVICE...

"Remember, never meet a margin call, and never average losses."

~Jesse Livermore

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BULLSEYE...

QQQQ target hit & it now sits in the neutral weekly zone....



Originally blogged February 27th...




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MARCH SCANDAL (NYSE)

(Click charts to enlarge)

Could there be a date with the neckline around the first week of April?

The S&P 500 O-Strip Index is a subset of the S&P 500 index.
It is the S&P 500 stocks that are listed on NASDAQ, which
amounts to approximately 75 NASDAQ traded stocks.



The SEC has opened an inquiry into the NYSE meltdown during the last hour of trading on Tuesday. This could cause a scandal that coincides with the beginning of a bear market...........

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HOT SPOT CHARTING...

(Click charts to enlarge)

Lots of potential for the Nasdaq to form a diamond top formation*

*The above diamond pattern is an example and trend lines are only speculative...

Charts and comments are NEVER INTENDED AS ADVICE...

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HOT SPOT CHARTING...

QQQQ, We could see a push upwards from the target area


before a possible final capitulation............





Both QID & MZZ featured charts had an amazing day!!!




Charts and comments are NEVER INTENDED AS ADVICE...





"In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity."


--Albert Einstein

Good luck trading...





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